The two global weather models that are most trusted in piecing together a weather forecast are the ECMWF, known as the Euro, and the GFS, often referred to as the American model.
Many are not aware that these are global models, which means that they are tasked with modeling weather conditions all over the world…not just on Delmarva, at any given hour. That is quite the tall task.
The NWS and other meteorologists, including the amateurs, use these models to fine tune a local prediction. The graphic above indicates that these global models lend more precision to a forecast when we get inside three days of a pending event. Because of that it is not recommended to place a great deal of credence in a global weather model that was made longer ago than three days.
The interesting thing to this amateur weather blogger is that normally, over the period of time that is 4 to 7 days out from an event, the models will waver in their interpretation of what is likely to happen. With this storm, however, the ECMWF model has not wavered at all in its insistence on a powerful snow storm striking our area Friday night into Saturday.
Since the Salisbury area is now within that critical 72 hour period of time prior to the onset of our expected snowstorm, and since all we care about is the weather in our back yards, now is an appropriate time to speak seriously about the impending forecast.
So, here goes!
One more sunny day will pass tomorrow with mid to upper 30 degree temperatures before clouds roll in on Friday.
Friday will have that “look”…a calm gray day. With temps reaching the low 40’s precipitation could begin as rain, perhaps as late as sunset.
Rain, if it occurs, will change over to snow during the evening. An accumulating snow is expected to fall steadily overnight. 3 to 5 inches or more of snow is likely to be on the ground at sunrise on Saturday morning. Do not, however, expect to see the sun.
The snow, which could be heavy at times, should continue to fall at least until midday. Winds will increase dramatically on Saturday with gusts up to and beyond 40 mph, inducing blowing snow and drifting of snow before transitioning to snow showers in the afternoon. This scenario, in combination with an astronomical high tide, could be a nightmare for coastal areas.
Depending upon which weather model wins the battle it appears as though residents of the Lower Eastern Shore can expect accumulations of 6 inches, at a bare minimum.
This weather blogger anticipates more likely snow totals of 8 to 10 inches, with higher totals accumulating towards the coast. It would not be a surprise if isolated areas across Delmarva picked up more than a foot of snow. This interpretation is based on the ECMWF model, which has maintained this stance throughout the week. Take a look here at today’s latest run of the ECMWF model that shows projected accumulations of snow through 6 PM on Saturday.
Here is the late afternoon official outlook from the National Weather Service in Wakefield, VA.
Hopefully a thorough view of the upcoming storm from multiple sources is giving you a realistic view of what we are about to encounter. A storm jog of 25 to 50 miles in either direction is capable of altering snowfall totals significantly. A post prior to 6 AM tomorrow will make you aware of any such change. We may then have a near definitive outlook on things.
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