The latest run of the ECMWF model indicates an increasing certainty that an impactful winter storm will affect Delmarva from late Sunday through Monday.

After thinking that a 6 inch snowfall may be the norm in and around the Salisbury area it now appears that storm totals may now need to be adjusted upwards for certain areas.

Double digit snow totals cannot be ruled out in isolated areas as it appears that a very narrow swath of heavy precipitation is likely to occur somewhere on Delmarva. It would be wishful thinking to know with certainty where that area ends up being. Be on the safe side and assume that it will be in your back yard.

A Winter Storm Warming is likely to be issued soon. For those who wonder what the difference is between a watch and a warning the distinction follows.

Definition: Indicates that severe winter weather (such as heavy snow, sleet, or freezing rain) is possible in the specified area within the next 48 hours.

Level of Certainty: Potential event, but conditions remain uncertain. Forecasters see a risk but are not yet sure about the timing, intensity, or location.

Purpose: Alerts people to prepare for possible hazardous winter weather. This is the time to stock supplies, make contingency plans, and stay updated.

Definition: Indicates that severe winter weather is imminent or already occurring in the specified area.

Level of Certainty: High confidence that the event will happen or is already happening. Timing, intensity, and location are well-defined.

Purpose: Alerts people to take immediate precautions as dangerous conditions are likely to occur or are ongoing.

Here is the official forecast as of this evening.

Sunday: Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 38F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with periods of snow after midnight. Low around 25F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

Monday: Cloudy with snow. Some sleet may mix in. High near 35F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.

Any adjustments to this outlook will be made tomorrow morning.

While extending thanks to longtime blog visitors, welcome to those who may be visiting for the first time.

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