In this morning’s initial weather post for 2022 I alluded to the potential development of a winter storm off of the Outer Banks as the current system with which we are dealing heads offshore tomorrow night.

Just this afternoon both the GFS and ECMWF models, for the first time in several days, agree that a period of heavy precipitation is likely to develop as the first cold blast of the winter dives down from the northwest.

The graphic above of the ECMWF model is the more modest of the two. The GFS model is much more bullish on a possible winter event.

With temperatures taking a drastic drop from the 60’s into the 30’s in a matter of hours it remains to be seen if the snow can fall heavily enough overnight into Monday morning’s rush hour to accumulate on already warm and saturated grounds.

With that caveat it would be premature to say with certainty what accumulations might occur. Now that we are within 36 to 48 hours of this event we should begin to take note of all possibilities.

Tomorrow morning’s model runs will offer enhancements to the forecast which may make the likely outcome more clear. I will provide you with that update in the morning.

In the meantime, snow lovers can remain optimistic, at least in the short term, that perhaps they’ll get a winter treat. Who knows…we’ve already had thunderstorms and the it is just the middle of the afternoon on New Year’s Day.