Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low 50’s will precede the impending east coast storm.
According to the GFS model that will bring us a cold rain developing overnight and into Sunday. The ECMWF model says that we may receive a period of heavy snow for a few hours early in the day tomorrow.
Both forecast models agree that the precipitation will begin as rain. They disagree upon where the rain/snow line will settle. Will it be near Salisbury or will it be a few miles away near Cambridge?
Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory have been issued for much of Virginia & Maryland. Heavy snow is expected Saturday night & continue into early Sunday morning. Be caution if traveling tonight. In addition, heavy wet snow may cause trees to come down #VAwx #MDwx #Snow pic.twitter.com/FtympKy1XU
— NWS Wakefield (@NWSWakefieldVA) February 6, 2021
The determining factor will be how close the low pressure system gets to the coast. The closer it gets the warmer the air will remain.
When the two most dependable models disagree like this even the National Weather Service is hesitant to make a definitive call. Those of us following the near term forecast should not be surprised to see it change within the next 12 hours.
I can recall a few times in my many years of experiencing similar scenarios where a beautiful winter day ended with snowfall on the next.
So, flip a coin. I wish I could give you a more confident look at what is to come. The next model run results will be available before 2 PM today. I will report the results shortly thereafter.
In the meantime, enjoy the February 50’s!
EVENING UPDATE: Without a great deal of certainty, due to the track of the storm, it looks at this time that the Salisbury area will receive a rain/snow/sleet mix on Sunday with perhaps a brief period of heavy snow. Little accumulation beyond an inch or so is expected. Plunging temperatures overnight will likely lead to black ice conditions on roadways by Monday morning.