I suppose I’m giving my age away by saying that one of my most profound childhood memories was when Hurricane Hazel ripped through Delmarva on this date in 1954.  I can remember our car door being nearly ripped off by the wind as my mother, with a car full of kids (my brother, sister, and me), was trying to locate my father, who was working out of town.  It was scary!

I’m happy that I survived that ordeal, long before weather radar and social media, and even happier that I can relive that moment with my mother, who is still going strong

Nonetheless, the remains of Michael, now a tropical storm, are prepared to dump a heavy rainfall on Delmarva today…especially late and into the overnight hours.

Tropical Storm Michael now has sustained winds of 50 mph and is really picking up speed on its race up the east coast before it heads out to sea early Friday.  Since the nature of tropical systems is to produce bands of squalls you are likely to see the intensity of those bands ebb and flow.  That explains the wide range in the precipitation forecasts.  It depends upon where you live on Delmarva…perhaps even right down to the neighborhood.  Here are the early morning models for today’s rainfall through 7 AM tomorrow.  The first is the Euro model and the second is the US model.  Pick your poison!

Here are things I believe to be nearly 100% factual.

• Our 12 day drought has come to an end as I have just received .34 of an inch of rain since I began writing this post.
• It will rain today, bur there will be periods of time where it does not.
• The chance of embedded thunderstorms in the system will increase as the day goes on.
• Rain will become heavier this afternoon with perhaps 1 to 2 inches by the evening rush hour.
• Driving will not be fun.
• Once the sun goes down I expect a period of 4 to 6 hours of perhaps torrential rainfall…at rates we rarely see on Delmarva.
• When you wake up tomorrow morning some of us will see localized flooding.
• While winds will gradually increase throughout the day and evening, the strongest winds, perhaps of gale force, will occur after the rain stops and Michael exits to the Atlantic.
• The sun will shine on Friday as the windy conditions persist.
• You should consider securing any loose items that may be outside on your property.