Salisbury MD

Sep 12/So What Can We Really Expect?

storm windsAlthough unlikely it is possible for tropical force storm winds to be experienced here as early as Thursday afternoon and into Friday.

The biggest threat to us locally will be the continued on/off rainfall for perhaps a period of days.  We have already recorded rainfall for 6 consecutive days.  With the saturation of the ground we certainly do not need more.  Here is a look at the expected rainfall totals from the highly respected Euro Model through Saturday morning at 7 AM.

euro rain 2

The US Model for precipitation through the same time period looks like this.

us rain

Both models indicate the farther south one travels from Delmarva increases the probability of heavy precipitation.  It only takes, however, a change of 25 miles or so in the track of Florence to move the heaviest amounts of precipitation closer to us.

Since these models are updated periodically throughout the day I will keep you aware of any substantial changes.

Please understand that the strange behavior of Florence over the last couple of days has taken the eye well south of us and it is still uncertain where its remnants will go once it reaches shore.  Also remember that the effects of the hurricane will be felt several hundred miles away from the eye.

Be happy that we will be spared the brunt of the hurricane, but remain cautious of any erratic behavior that may occur in its trek ashore.  Right now I expect the windiest conditions to occur from Thursday through Sunday.  The best chances for rainfall appear to Be late Thursday into Saturday morning.

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