There is a difference in being cautious and being foolish.  We all hope that we will not feel the effects of a hurricane this week, but we would be foolish to not develop a plan to cope with such a possibility.  So, let caution prevail.

The following information represents possibilities for Hurricane Florence.  I am NOT predicting that a hurricane will strike Delmarva.  I simply want to explain the possible scenarios.

Let’s start with the facts.

• Nobody really knows what Mother Nature has in store for us.
• Short terms forecasts have gotten exponentially better from meteorologists with the advent of technology.
• The 5 day outlook represents a short term forecast so we should take it seriously.
• In the NOAA map above the expected eye of Florence is clearly defined at 8 AM on each of the next several days.
• The precise location of the eye of the storm can not be determined well in advance, but there is considerable certainty that the eye of the storm will lie somewhere within the circular cone depicted above.
• Notice that the cone gets larger for each day in the future as we progress through time.
• If you look at the Friday projection you will notice that, even though experts expect the eye to make landfall in North Carolina, there is a possibility that the eye could be at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
• No matter where the eye of the hurricane is located dangerous conditions can exist many miles from the center.
• If the hurricane goes ashore just south of us and stalls over land then we could be subjected to days of rainfall on already saturated ground.
• If the eye of the storm came ashore at the southern part of the cone near the South Carolina/Georgia border than we would probably be off the hook.
• If, as we all hope, the storm passes east of us and either goes out to sea or up the east coast we can still experience tropical storm conditions.
• Since most of the strong winds and heavy rainfall are on the east side of the eye of most hurricanes the worst case scenario for us is that the eye would head up the Chesapeake Bay.

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I promise to keep you updated on the current path of Hurricane Florence and alert you to all of the possible scenarios.  My intention is not to alarm anyone.