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Mar 13/Will Winter Crash Spring’s Party?

The honest answer is “I don’t know.”  This crazy winter, however, may refuse to go away, upon the arrival of the vernal equinox, if the early projections from the Euro (ECMWF) weather model are close to being valid.

The image below reflects the projected forecast for the Mid-Atlantic region as of this morning for the first full day of spring at 8 AM on March 21.
us_model-en-153-0_modez_2018031300_204_518_215

The updated ECWMF model, as of 3:30 PM today for the morning of March 21, looks like this.
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031312_192_518_215

Do you see what I see?  It appears as though there is a possibility of a significant winter event on the first full day of spring!  In fact, it looks a bit more likely this afternoon than it did this morning, however, I must stress that it is too early to etch this in stone.

Weather models like the ECMWF currently represent our best guess for future weather conditions based upon historical data and the continued improvement of computer technology.

Projections that are 7 days away, as this one is, carry about a 20% chance of being totally accurate. Things can change from day to day meaning that models are likely to change from day to day as well.

If the ECMWF model looks like this come this weekend then the accuracy jumps to close to 80%. With that in mind I’ll keep a close eye on things and give you a better idea of what to expect later. For now, however, it looks like the snow lovers among us have at least one more good chance!

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